Futures of Youth Work in Times of a Digital and Socio-ecological Transformation

This project is a global partnership between researchers in Germany and the United States to explore the futures of youth work amid changing socio-ecological conditions. The Great Transformation (WBGU, 2011) identified several macro-changes that would alter conditions for all areas of society: earth ecosystem, global economic, and social transformations. For example, over the next 10 years ecological conditions are expected to change dramatically (e.g., exceeding critical climate boundaries) (Kuhlicke, 2016; IPCC, 2023; Sonnberger et al., 2024) unless there are major systemic, structural changes. A digital/ technological transformation is also unfolding (Miebach 2020), fueled by the widespread integration of artificial intelligence technologies, with its pace of transformation likely to intensify in coming years (Kumar, Verma, & Mirza, 2024). This digital transformation will have an immense impact on social interaction, such as creating new norms for human interaction or amplify social polarization (Heinlein & Huchler 2024; Kickbusch et al., 2021). These intersecting transformations demand strategic, forward-thinking approaches that empower communities to adapt and thrive, including new or revised social change processes (e.g., the (re)negotiation of rules to overcome the associated challenges). From this perspective, the project seeks to position youth work at the forefront of innovative approaches to adapt the changes.
This project will leverage participatory scenario planning techniques (Bishop et al., 2007) to determine which scenarios can be derived based on projected changes and to draw up actionable plans for further developing youth work (e.g., equipping youth workers to implement scenario methodologies). Scenario planning techniques have become widely recognized tools for fostering strategic foresight that can help communities anticipate a range of futures, identify risks and opportunities, and create actionable strategies to address complex challenges (Chermak, 2011; Kok, Biggs, & Zurek, 2007; Schwartz, 1991). The project seeks to answer the following question: How can youth work with teens and young adults strategically position itself—conceptually and structurally—to respond to transformation changes? And additionally for the USA: How can it serve as a critical partner in community development? 
In the first step of the project, answers will be based on participatory research methodology. The intention is to develop three scenarios (positive, trend and challenging scenario) for the future of youth work using the scenario techniques (Bishop et al., 2007; Popp, 2012). In a multi-stage process (Albers & Broux, 1999), projections concerning foreseeable developments in the framework conditions of youth work will be developed together with senior research scientists and young people involved in youth work. The research objective in the first step will be to determine which factors represent a decisive orientation among these scenarios.
In the second step, the three scenarios will be the starting point for a wider discussion about the future of youthwork. Youth work experts, young people, and decision-makers will be convened to develop actionable conclusions for youth work drawing on the insights of the scenarios, as well as on their expertise and experience. Conceptual, practical, and youth policy conclusions will be drawn from this step and serve as data for analyses and comparisons across Germany and the United States. 
The project aims to initiate and shape a nationwide process around youth work in two different locations, Germany and Kansas (USA). Implementation of the project in a location will occur independent of the other. However, findings from the process on the future of youth work in each location will be shared and comparative analyses conducted, with a particular eye toward understanding similarities and distinctions between locations. While the two locations will differ in the amalgamation of framework conditions they face and their understanding of youth work, the exchange will make it possible to understand differences and similarities in the development of the scenarios, which could have implications for youth work policy and practice.
Through this collaborative project between Germany and the United States, the project will integrate a global perspective on effective strategies, drawing lessons from both contexts to create actionable frameworks for youth work. International cooperation has three aspects. First, the contrast of the initial situation of change processes in each county will reveal facts (trends) that are important for the development of youth work scenarios. Second, synergies will be utilized to derive actionable conclusions that better position youth work in both locations to address expected change processes. Third, when analyzing and comparing findings across locations, similarities and differences can be identified and the approach can be successfully aligned with social particularities and historical similarities.
The work is embedded in the scientific network Child and Youth Work Germany (https://bundeskongress-kja.de/wissenschaft-kja/) and the international network EUTAG (European Network for Youth and Community Work Education and Training in HE). In the latter, the researchers are primarily in dialogue with scientists from Wales, Finland, Spain, the USA, and Germany.
The project is intended to benefit both the scientific community and the field of youth work. The scenario technique method is not typically used in a research context, rather it is commonly used for practical development. This case study will be used to methodically determine the conditions under which the procedure is conceivable for use in a scientific context. For the practice of youth work, it is planned not only to provide the scenarios as a digital handout, but also to reflect on the far-reaching discussion of the scenarios by professionals and youth representatives in the form of essays.
 

The guiding question for the development of the scenarios is: What will youth work look like in 2035? The approach is based on "intuitive logic" (Bishop/Hines/Collins 2007, p. 9) and leads to "predictive" scenarios (Bishop, Hines & Collins 2007 p 10 citing Borjeson, 2006). Helping questions for this process are:
•    What do the impending consequences of the digital and socioecological changes mean for young people and for youth work?
•    When so many things are changing – does the answer change to the question: Why youth work?
The development of the scenarios in Workshop 1 is planned as a process to describe of possible futures (positive, trend and challenging scenario) for youth work arising from changing framework conditions. While scenarios have been used in management processes, in this project we will use scenarios as a tool for understanding and framing youth work processes. Numerous considerations must be made in this process, such as: How does the use of artificial intelligence affect youth development? What are the expected consequences of climate change for youth work? What political and social developments might arise as a result of these changes?
 

The primary purpose of the scenarios is to provide a basis for discussion and orientation towards possible futures in the field of youth work, rather than serving as an end in themselves.
When publishing the scenarios, existing work in this context will also be used to critically discuss the project results (e.g. Larson, Hansen & Moneta, 2006; Valentin, 2016; Pawluszuk et al., 2018; Valentin 2023; Laine, 2023; Gorman et al., 2024; Cooper, Corney, & Gorman, 2024; O’Brian et al., 2018; Omarova et al., 2024). Both conceptual and empirical work will be included.
 

The research interest will not be the development of the three scenarios but to determine which factors represent the decisive orientation in the creation and discussion of the scenarios. The aim is to work out which orientations underlie the statements of the discussants. For example, do they consider political dimensions to be decisive for further developments or questions of climate justice or lack of resources? This approach aims to achieve a deeper understanding of the decision-making processes in dealing with potential futures within the field of youth work. 
The two discussion phases observed in Workshop 1 and Workshop 2 are understood in this context as a practice of youth work. Here, practice is fundamentally defined as the "execution of actions”, in contrast to observation or contemplation (Lenzen, 1998, p. 1520, own translation). Participants in the discussion, who are primarily academics or researchers, are explicitly considered part of the practice in this setting. This is because they actively contribute reflections on the practice of youth work and are part of the process of mutual understanding. Together, through their influence, they co-create and shape the practice in a co-creative process alongside young people and other stakeholder groups.
In this context, passive participatory observation (Martin & Wawrinowski, 2014; Döring, 2014 p 329) will be conducted by researchers not involved in the process during both Workshop 1 and Workshop 2. It is anticipated that there will be very different assessments regarding potential future developments, prioritization of aspects, and conclusions drawn. The research question of interest is what orientations the participants in the discussions (scientists, youth work professionals, young people, and political actors) will demonstrate in this process. One could say that the arrangement is that of two different focus groups (Döring, 2014 p. 359) with a differentiated methodically guided discussion phase.
 

Germany

Prof. Dr. Katrin Valentin is a research professor at the Protestant University of Applied Sciences Nuremberg with a focus on transformation research. Her research focuses on youth work research, education for sustainable development, digital transformation and school development research. She worked for a long time at the Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg as a research assistant at the Chair of General Educational Sciences. She studied education with a minor in psychology and philosophy and completed her doctorate in social pedagogy at the Free University of Berlin on the subject of subject orientation in youth association work. She heads the nationwide working group "Youth work research in times of socio-ecological transformation" as part of the scientific network for child and youth work and is a member of the international exchange forums ANGELS and EUTAG as well as a full member of the German Society for Educational Sciences.
https://www.evhn.de/hochschule/organisation/personenverzeichnis/prof-dr-katrin-valentin 
katrin.valentin@evhn.de

Kansas, USA

Prof. Dr. David M. Hansen is a professor at the University of Kansas in the School of Education where he teaches and maintains an active research program as a graduate faculty member. He completed his doctorate (2001) and post-doctorate experience (2001 to 2007) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is a developmental scientist with an applied research focus. His expertise is on adolescent development and learning in a variety of out-of-school settings, including the full range of organized youth activities (e.g., extracurricular, community-based programs). Dr. Hansen helped start a non-profit organization in Chicago whose aim was to provide the means for local faith-based organizations to hire full-time staff to assist in addressing issues of poverty and education an a community.
https://epsy.ku.edu/people/david-m-hansen 
d.g.williams@uwtsd.ac.uk